July 2024 was slightly warmer than the corresponding month in 2023, but this data is not conclusive: according to the observatory climate change at the European Institute Copernicus it is now “increasingly likely” that 2024 will be the hottest year on record globally.
A streak of 13 consecutive months heat record Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Institute’s Climate Change Service (C3S), said the Earth’s surface “has ended, but not by a feather.”
In a past month marked by record heat in Greece and Japan, the mercury in Morocco topped 48°C, killing 21 people in 24 hours, while the global average surface temperature was 16.91°C, or 0.04°C. According to the Copernicus C3S monthly bulletin, the previous record was in July 2023.
Excessive heat
The heat was particularly felt in the western United States and Canada, much of Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and east of Antarctica, while Europe experienced its second warmest July since 2010.
Globally, last month’s temperature was 1.48°C above the normal for the 1850-1900 period – the pre-industrial era, before humanity started emitting massive amounts of greenhouse gases.
It remained below the symbolic threshold of 1.5 ° Celsius, which was exceeded every month for a year.
However, this year’s July is the second hottest month on record, the agency notes.
“The world is getting too hot”
The overall picture “has not changed: our climate continues to warm,” Ms Burgess stressed. “The devastating effects of climate change began well before 2023 and will continue until global greenhouse gas emissions reach zero.”
“The world is going to be very hot,” World Meteorological Organization (WMO) vice-president Celeste Saulo warned yesterday.
The past month has seen nothing but events believed to be caused by the devastating effects of climate change.
Heat waves hit Central Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Pakistan and China were hit by unprecedented floods. Hurricanes like Beryl hit the Caribbean and the United States. Deadly landslides have occurred in the Indian state of Kerala. Huge wildfires in California have destroyed forested areas.
In addition, the world broke the record for the highest average global temperature ever recorded for two days in a row (22nd, 23rd) in July.
SOS from the oceans too
The oceans, which absorb 90% of excess heat as a result of human activity, continue to overheat. July’s mean sea surface temperature was 20.88°C, the second highest for any July, just 0.01°C short of the all-time record set in July 2023, after 15 record-breaking months.
This remains a concern, although further reductions are expected as the El Nino climate phenomenon, which increases ocean temperatures, ends.
Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, where El Nino is particularly felt, have started to cool, which “indicates the development of La Nina” as opposed to El Nino, which generally lowers the temperature of the planet.
Despite this development, experts predict that 2024 will break 2023’s record and become the hottest year on record.
As of January, the average global temperature is already 0.27°C above the corresponding period in 2023, C3S notes. A large decrease would be required by the end of 2024 to keep average temperatures below 2023.
This has “rarely occurred” since measurements began, which “raises the likelihood that 2024 will be the warmest year on record,” the agency concluded.