There is a non-trivial “flaw” in the global design, which is a rather Earth-sized “hole” and water and global food demand.
This is because production must increase by at least 50% by 2050 to meet global food demand. But even if we leave aside all other problems such as the effect of heat, soil degradation, and plant diseases. plants, there is one that can prevent the nutrition of the world’s population without the help of any other reason: water.
A 2017 paper estimated that irrigation water use would need to increase by 146% by mid-century to match crop production with expected demand. We have a bit of a… problem here: The water has already run out.
In general, dry parts of the world are drying out, partly due to reduced precipitation, partly due to reduced river flow due to the loss of mountain ice and snow, and partly due to rising temperatures, which lead to increased evaporation and transpiration by plants.
Water needed to meet food demand is not available
Many of the world’s largest growing areas are now threatened by “dry droughts,” in which hot, dry air blows moisture from the soil at an alarming rate. Some places, such as the southwestern United States, which is currently in its 24th year of drought, may have gone into permanent drought.
Rivers are unable to reach the sea, lakes and aquifers are shrinking, freshwater species are disappearing at about five times the rate of terrestrial species, and large cities are threatened by extreme water stress.
Agriculture already accounts for 90% of global freshwater use. We’ve pulled so much water out of the ground, we’ve changed the rotation of the Earth! Experts say the water needed to meet growing food demand simply isn’t there.
This 2017 paper celebrates the British watchman, should have made everyone react anxiously. But, as usual, it was ignored by politicians and the media.
The situation in Spain and the melting of glaciers
Only when the problem reaches Europe do we realize that there is a crisis. While there is panic over the drought in Spain’s Catalonia and Andalusia regions, there is an almost complete failure among powerful interests to recognize that this is just one case of a global problem that should be at the top of the political agenda.
While the drought measures have sparked protests in Spain, it’s not the most dangerous flashpoint. The Indus basin is shared by three nuclear powers—India, Pakistan, and China—and several highly volatile and divided regions already plagued by hunger and extreme poverty.
Today, during the dry season, 95% of the river’s flow is withdrawn mainly for irrigation. However, the demand for water in both Pakistan and India is increasing rapidly. Temporarily boosted by melting glaciers in the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush (Indo-Caucasus), the supply will soon peak and then decline.
Even under the most optimistic climate scenario, outflows from Asian glaciers are expected to peak by mid-century and glacier mass will shrink by about 46% by 2100. Recurring conflicts in Kashmir. But these conflicts could be the start of something worse if a new Indian Waters treaty is not concluded given the dwindling resources.
Measures to limit water consumption are not enough
It is widely believed that these problems can be solved simply by improving irrigation efficiency: a large amount of water is wasted in agriculture. However, there is a paradox in irrigation efficiency. As better techniques ensure that less water is needed to grow a given volume of crops, irrigation becomes cheaper.
As a result, it attracts more investment, encourages farmers to grow more water-efficient, more profitable crops, and expands over a larger area. This happened, for example, in Spain’s Guadiana River basin, where a €600 million investment to reduce water use by improving irrigation efficiency boosted it.
The paradox can be overcome by regulations: laws limiting both collective and individual water consumption. But governments prefer to rely solely on technology. Without political and economic measures, it does not work.
Other technical means are also unlikely to solve the problem. Governments are planning huge engineering projects to transport water from one place to another. But climate change and increasing demand put many water donor regions at risk of drying up.
What can be done not to call water a little water?
Healthy aquatic ecosystems and improved water management can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect against climate risks, says the UN report Water at the heart of the climate crisis.
In addition, wetlands such as mangrove forests (a type of subtropical and tropical coastal forest dominated by salt-tolerant plants), seagrass meadows, marshes, and swamps are highly efficient carbon sinks that absorb and store CO2, contributing to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
Wetlands also act as a buffer against extreme weather events. They provide a natural shield against storm surges and absorb excess water and rain. Through the plants and microorganisms they live in, wetlands also provide water storage and purification.
Early warning systems for floods, droughts, and other water-related hazards provide more than a tenfold return on investment and can significantly reduce disaster risk: 24-hour storm warning can reduce subsequent damage by 30%. exhibition.
Suffice it to say that climate-resilient water and sanitation systems could save the lives of more than 360,000 babies every year.
Finally, climate-smart agriculture using drip irrigation (based on watering the plant/tree, etc. instead of just watering the soil) and other more efficient water use methods can help reduce the demand on freshwater resources.